Management of California Oak Woodlands : Uncertainties and Modeling 1

A mathematical policy model of oak woodlands is presented. The model illustrates the policy uncertainties that exist in the management of oak woodlands. These uncertainties include: (1) selection of a policy criterion function, (2) woodland dynamics, (3) initial and final state of the woodland stock. The paper provides a review of each of the uncertainty issues. The final section of the paper describes a modeling approach that can be developed to assist policy makers in evaluating alternative oak woodland policy actions. The management of natural resources is the topic of numerous academic journals, and hundreds of books and popular articles. Natural resource management has different meanings to different groups of people. Natural resources can be viewed as environmental assets which provide value to society in any number of ways. This value can be gained from using the natural resource as an input into the productive process, as a sources of raw materials, as a provider of life-sustaining services, and as a provider of esthetic and recreational amenities. The management of a natural resource is further complicated by various uncertainties. Uncertainty exists in determining the exact composition or stock (size) of the natural resource, in understanding the ecological dynamics of the natural resource, and with respect to whether the resource can be managed to achieve some socially preferred state. It is then not surprising that, when one suggests that we need to better manage our natural resources, controversy erupts concerning how the natural resource should managed and for whose benefit. One segment of society may wish to have natural resources managed to improve their short-run and/or longrun productivity (e.g., range management for livestock) while another group may wish to have the natural resource managed to sustain or improve its amenity qualities (e.g. wildlife habitat). Ideally, the highest value of the natural resource to society could be attained by maximizing the discounted net social value of the resource. This can be a difficult natural resource management problem since it requires information on the prices and costs of differing natural resource uses. Some of these have market values and cost (e.g. firewood), and other uses may have observable costs, but not have observable market prices (e.g. open space). These uses must have values measured through non-market evaluation techniques. Nevertheless, management of a natural resource requires that choices be made between competing resources uses and over time and space. These choices will not only affect differing groups in society but also potentially affect the ecological dynamics of the natural resource system. Effects on natural resource systems are typically valued in terms of their ultimate impact on human society although this is not universally accepted. Commoner (1972) presents a principle of minimum interference, which suggests that there should be minimal to no management of natural resource systems by society. However, the obvious is that society does attempt to manage natural resource assets and that the outcome of that management is judged by whether it is consistent with collectively desired outcomes. 1An abbreviated version of this paper was presented at the Symposium on Oak Woodlands: Ecology, Management, and Urban Interface Issues, March 19-22, 1996, San Luis Obispo, Calif. 2Associate Professor, Agribuiness Department, and Professor, Natural Resources Management Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407.